As we enter cold and flu season, I thought I'd share this neat little web nugget with you all: Google Flu Trends. Now how amazing is this? Just when you thought Google could do it all...it pretty much DOES. In the past, state and local health departments have relied on data compiled by the Centers for Disease Control to predict when flu outbreaks will occur. The problem with this is that the data provided by the CDC is often two weeks behind the trend--not terribly helpful if you are a county health officer who is trying to ensure that the people in your county have adequate supplies of flu vaccine.
What Google has done is compiled key search terms that increase in frequency during flu season, as their programmers believe that this is a good indicator of flu activity in a particular area. Now you're probably wondering, 'well how the heck does Google know where I am?' Your computer's IP address (its address on the web) is localized to a certain geographical area, and Google searches can be traced back to certain IP addresses. Thus, if a bunch of people in Bucksnort, Tennessee are using Google to search terms such as "runny nose and cough" repeatedly over time, this may serve as an indicator that perhaps flu activity in Bucksnort is high.
Now how cool is that? Who would have thought that Google could be used as an epidemiology tool? It makes you wonder, could Google be used to predict where hotspots for certain health conditions may pop up? For example, in the early 1980's, in South Texas, many babies were born with a condition known as anencephaly. Babies born with this condition are born without the cerebral cortex of their brain, and are often born missing the cranial cap. They do not survive more than a few hours in most cases, with a few surviving only a few days. The number of anencephalic babies born to mothers in South Texas was disproportionate compared to the normal statistic (around 1000-2000 babies total per year). Back then, no definitive cause was given for the high number of anencephalic births. To this day, it is still unknown what could have caused the mothers to give birth to these babies.
Now, flash forward to today: if the same thing occurred, do you think a tool like Google Flu Trends could be used to predict it? Should this kind of tool be used to predict relatively rare conditions such as anencephaly, or should it be used to predict chronic conditions such as diabetes, high blood pressure and heart disease? How can doctors, health officials and the public use this data?
image from the CDC Public Health Image Library: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a4/EM_of_influenza_virus.jpg
Posted by scienceguru on November 12, 2008
Tags cool site, discuss, disease, viruses


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